INTRODUCTION

(I deleted the URL's because they are not allowed here)

First of all, sorry if my english is not good, i'm brazilian.

I was recently wondering what the odds would be of getting exactly the skin I want in the valorant store. I saw some discussions on the subject and decided to delve a little deeper. I quickly developed an algorithm that calculates an average of how long it would take players to get a specific skin, considering that the Valorant store generates 4 random skins daily, with no repetition between them on the same day.

Well, first of all, let's cover some important data. First I must say that I considered a total of 337 skins to be purchasable from the store.

Know that the algorithm has configuration variables, and you or anyone can redo the calculations for a different number of skins.

Another important point is that the skins you already own do not appear in the store. But for simplicity's sake, we'll consider that you, poor thing, don't have any skins, and you just want a specific one.

PROBABILITY CALCULATION

Before we get to the algorithm itself, let's calculate out of pure curiosity what the chances of you getting your skin within the 30 day period.

Number of skins available = 337

Store skins = 4

(one day) = 1/337 + 1/336 + 1/335 + 1/334 = 0,0119 = 1,19%

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This is the formula for calculating cumulative percentage:

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As seen above, you must take each individual percentage value, divide by 100 and add to 1. Then multiply each result and at the end subtract from “1”. Finally, multiply by 100.

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0,0119 + 1 = 1,0119

(1,0119 )^30 = 1,4260

1,4260 - 1 = 0,4260

0,4260*100 = 42,6%

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As you can see, about 40% in a month is not so pleasant. But if we took, for example, a number of 1000 players, all waiting for a skin, and then we calculated an average of how long it took to get them, how much would this average be? For this I developed a simple algorithm in Python, which can be cloned/modified by any of you.

ALGORITHM

Source code: (sorry i cant post links here T_T)

What the algorithm does is generate 4 random numbers between 1 and 337. These 4 numbers do not repeat (for the same day), and each of them represents a skin in the game.

Before we run the algorithm we must choose a number for the skin we all want (in this example I chose 45).

The algorithm will run a thousand times, and each of those 1000 times it will calculate how many days it took for one of the 4 randomly generated numbers (store skins) to be equal to the number we chose (skin desired by everyone).

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After the 1000 runs, we average the number of days and do an analysis of the data.

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Finally, these were the results obtained:

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Well, I don't think 86 days is a good average, do you? So my friend, if you find a skin you want in the store, BUY IT!

As you can see in the chart above and following the logic of the calculated average, most players get their skin within a period of at most 3 months.

Just another graphical view of the data

CONCLUSION

I've seen many say for them to put more skins in the store, or for the rotation to take place twice a day. Feel free to modify the algorithm and see how much it would improve our chances.

I must say that I am with you. I really want the Vandal Neptune and the RGX butterfly knife, and they still haven't appeared.

They say that the game profits on top of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) logic, so my friend, please don't buy the skins if they aren't the ones you really want. I'll just spend my money on exactly what I want, so Valorant might not profit if it's up to me.

Considering 1000 players all wanting the same specific skin, the average waiting time to get them was 83 days. We also calculated the probability of getting our skin in a month, something around 40%. Draw your own conclusions.

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PERSONAL ANALYSIS

Honestly, I don't think they're silly enough to make it COMPLETELY random... Maybe click algorithms (to identify which skin you're analyzing), or algorithms that avoid daily skin repetitions may exist to improve Valorant's chances of profiting.

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DISCLAIMER

There may be code/account errors above, I ask for help from the community to improve the whole. I did the algorithm in 20 minutes and the calculations in 5 because I'm a lazy Brazilian. So, sorry for anything. Thanks.

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CONTACT ME

Name: Gabriel Gomides

Discord: Hawk#4878