A lot of people have been complaining about the rotating store system in VALORANT, but just how bad is it? What is the probablitity that the one skin we all want (smite knife) is in the shop? Lets find out.

Since the skins in the featured bundle and the skins that you own cannot appear in your store we have to do a simple calculation to find out how many skins can appear in our store. The number of skins that could be in your store is currently 197 - no. of skins owned. The number of skins owned should not include any skins from the featured bundle as those are accounted for in the initial 197 value.

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Lets do an example of calculating the probability that the one skin you want is in your store, given that you own no skins.

The odds of getting the skin you want in the first store slot is obviously 1/197. The odds of NOT getting that skin in that slot is 1 - 1/197 or 196/197.

The odds of the next slot having the skin you want is 1/196. Therefore the odds of NOT getting that skin in that slot is 195/196.

If we do this for all 4 of the skin slots we get:

1. 196/197
2. 195/196
3. 194/195
4. 193/194

The odds of ALL of these happening at the same time is the result of multiplying these odds together:

(196*195*194*193) / (197*196*195*194) = ~0.9796 or ~97.96%

This number is the probability that the item you want ISN'T in your store. To calculate the probability that the item IS in your store you just take 100% - calculated probability. So in our exaple if you have no skins and are waiting for a specific skin the chance that that skin is in your store each day is 2.03%.

This method of calculating can also be used if you are waiting for two different skins. Imagine you got the skin from the previous example and are now waiting for two other skins. The probability that the first store slot has one of the skins you want is 2/196 and the probability that the first slot doesnt have the skins is 194/196. You can continue with the same approach as before getting the probabilities for each store slot and end up with the probability that at least one of the two skins is in your store.

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This ~2% that we came up with can be represented as 1/50 odds. This means on average you have to wait 50 days for the skin you want to appear in your store. That is almost a whole act. The store needs to be changed in some way, whether they add more slots, or rotate every half day, riot need to do something about this.

I know there is a formula to plug these numbers into and get an answer but I wanted to explain the maths behind everything in a simple-ish way. Feel free to correct anything that is wrong in this post as I am not a statistician and may very well have made a mistake.