Will there be a Chamber nerf after VCT, and how will it impact the state of sentinels?

Posted by Steve

Tuesday, July 19, 2022 10:50 AM

Will there be a Chamber nerf after VCT, and how will it impact the state of sentinels?

Looking at the current results of VCT - Stage 2 - Masters Copenhagen and the pick rates for Chamber are outrageous, currently having an overall pick rate of 71.74%. The next most popular agent pulls in at 47.83%.

People often post about how oppressive Chamber is here, but with the tournament results coming in:
- do you think Chamber will see nerfs?
- how quickly do you imagine there will be Chamber changes?

There's so many posts about ways to nerf Chamber that we probably don't need to ask that question, but as a bonus question, how can we make other sentinels more competitive? The second highest sentinel pick is Sage at 22.83% (10th overall). What are other sentinels missing? What do they need to be more relevant?

Edit: His w/l ratio was 50%, with the highest KD tied with Jett at 1.19, but a pick rate of 78.3%(to Jett's 21.7%).

I'm not sure that's actually impactful data in this case though, as the pick rate is so high that almost 80% of games will result in a neutral w/l ratio outcome contribution for him. He's too ubiquitous to really use that information well.

Some might argue that, given these numbers, you're "throwing" if you don't run Chamber.

I'd have to comb the tournament results to highlight just the games where just one team ran him to see how he impacts asymmetrical Chamber games, but I don't have the time/patience to do that.

Regardless, the win rate stats look very skewed due to representation, as Cypher has a 100% win rate on 2 games played.

I genuinely feel that pick rates at this level are more representative than win rates given how small the sample size is and the level of talent.

I haven't played Valorant long enough to see what a healthy meta is, or to be able to identify it at a glance, but most rock-paper-scissors meta have some amount of counterplay, whereas a stagnant meta tends to trend towards optimized choices.

The data suggests we're closer to an optimized meta than a counterplay meta, but again, I'm not the person to ask.

For additional reference: Raze saw a 50% pick rate and 50% win rate Fade saw a 47.8% pick rate and 47.7% win rate Kay/O saw a 44.6% pick rate and a 53.7% win rate Viper saw a 39.1% pick rate and a 50% win rate

So, of the agents with a ~40%+ pick rate, most had approximately the same w/l ratio as Chamber.

Pocket picks are often going to over perform, as they're specifically chosen to play to map strengths. Chamber's lowest pick rate was on Bind with 62.5%.

Notable pocket performances: Breach on Haven (88.89% pick rate, 71.43% on next highest at Fracture) with a 45.5% win rate Omen on Haven (83.33% pick rate, 40% on Split) with a 60.7% win rate Sova on Breeze (87.5% pick rate, 62.5% on Icebox) with a 61.9% win rate Sage on Ice Box (87.5% pick rate, 50% on Fracture) with a 52.4% win rate

Chamber's lowest pick rate is often higher than many over performing pocket picks on their second highest picked map. So even when he's considered to be underperforming on a given map, he still is considered a better choice than most.

Funny enough, his worst map according to pick rate, Bind, has him ranked 5th in terms of pick rate for agents on that map, meaning he still makes the team on average even when he's at his worst.

Again, this is all data from the highest possible level of play, so take it with a grain of salt, and the breakdown provided by me is from someone who is both new to the game and actively bad at it. But the data is really interesting to look at.

IMG

References

  • https://www.reddit.com/r/VALORANT/comments/w1gcna/will_there_be_a_chamber_nerf_after_vct_and_how/
  • https://reddit.com/w1gcna

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